Comment Letter on Population Projections in 2025 General Plan Update

 

Katherine Schell Rodriguez

P.O. Box 163

Livingston, California 95334

August 28, 2008

 

City of Livingston

1416 C Street

Livingston, CA 95334

 

Re: 2025 General Plan Update General Plan And Environmental Impact Report

The Environmental Impact Report for the 2025 General Plan Update is fatally flawed because it obscures the vast differences in population growth assumptions used by Master Plans subject to the General Plan such as the Parks and Recreation Master Plan and the Urban Water Management Plans.

Population figures between these two plans and figures do not agree with published figures in City Budgets. For Example for the year 2005

• The 2007-2008 Budget states Livingston’s Population at 12,411
• The Urban Water Management Plan has the 2005 Population at 14,135

 

For the Year 2007

• 2007-2008 Budget                                        13,287
• 2007 Parks and Rec. Master Plan                  13,000
• Urban Water Management Plan Projection    17,734

As you can see from the following tables, different population growth figures can vary widely based on the underlying assumptions used. It does not appear that the same “base line starting population figure” and percentage growth assumptions were used for the Parks and Recreation Master Plan and the Urban Water Management Plan.

Plans that ‘tier off’ and are subject to the General Plan (and its EIR assumptions) should agree “across the board”. A person should be able to lay them side by side and see consistent population growth figures in each one

 

Respectfully

 

Katherine Schell/Rodriguez

Enc. Exhibit 1 Population Growth Projections from The Parks and Rec Master Plan and Urban Water Management Plan

         Exibit 2 Population Figures from the 2007 – 2008 Budget and Analysis/Commentary on Population Growth Figures

 

 

Exhibit 1 Population Growth Projections from The Parks and Rec Master Plan and Urban Water Management Plan

From  Parks and Recreation Master Plan Updated Lands Use Area Calculations General Plan Update Population Projections April 2007							Recreation Master Plan Growth Rate Projection Analysis
Phase	Area of Development				Year Completed	Population	Change in Population	Time Frame	Number of years	Percent of Increase /Decrease	Annual Growth Rate
	Current					13000
1	Buildout of Existing City Limits				2009	19756	6756	2007-2009	2 years	51.97%	23.28%
2	Buildout of Existing Sphere of Infulence				2012	39659	19903	2009-2012	3 years	100.74%	26.15%
3	Buildout of Areas 1-8				2024	72837	33178	2012-2024	12 years	83.66%	5.20%
4	Buildout of Master Plan Study Area				2044	110906	38069	2024-2044	20 years	52.27%	2.12%
Table 2.4		Historical and Projected Population
		2005 Urban Water Management Plan
		City of Livingston
2005 UWMP Projected Years (1)					2005	2010	2015	2020	2025	2030
20065 UWMP Projected Population (2)					14,135	24,921	47,073	62,626	79,490	83,471
Annual Increase over 5-year Period						12.00%	13.60%	5.90%	4.90%	1.00%
Notes:
1. 2005 Urban Water Management Plan Projection years are: 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025
2. Population projections are provided by Pacific Municipal Consultants, Land Use Assumptions,
Dec. 2005 and revised April 2006.

Exibit 2 Population Figures from the 2007 – 2008 Budget and Analysis/Commentary on Population Growth Figures

From City of Livingston 2007 – 2008 Budget
Year	Population	Change in Population	Percent of Increase / Decrease
1998	10,515
1999	10,505	-10	-0.10%
2000	10,696	191	1.82%
2001	10,451	-245	-2.29%
2002	10,864	413	3.95%
2003	11,125	261	2.40%
2004	11,693	568	5.11%
2005	12,411	718	6.14%
2006	12,614	203	1.64%
2007	13,287	673	5.34%

 

 

 

Analysis and Commentary on Population Projections

Parks and Recreation Master Plan

Vs

Urban Water Management Plan

 

Year	Parks and Rec. Pop. Projections 2007 Population Stated as 13.000	UWMP Population Projections 2005 population stated as 14,135	UWMP Population Projections Using 2005 Population as Per Budget	UWMP Population Projections Using 2007 Population as  Per Budget
2005		14,135	12,411
2006		15,833	13,902
2007	13,000	17,734	15,571	13,287
2010	24,923	24,922	21,882	18,672
2015	46,168	47,072	41,331	35,268
2020	59,477	62,626	54,988	46,922
2025	74,384	79,490	69,795	59,557
2030	82,629	83,471	73,290	62,539
2044	110,905	95,708	84,035	71,708

 

 

This table uses baseline population figures and growth percentages from the Parks and Recreation Master Plan. It is quite clear that small changes in assumptions create noticeable differences in results.