Comment Letter on Population Projections in 2025 General Plan Update

 

Katherine Schell Rodriguez

P.O. Box 163

Livingston, California 95334

August 28, 2008

 

City of Livingston

1416 C Street

Livingston, CA 95334

 

Re: 2025 General Plan Update General Plan And Environmental Impact Report

The Environmental Impact Report for the 2025 General Plan Update is fatally flawed because it obscures the vast differences in population growth assumptions used by Master Plans subject to the General Plan such as the Parks and Recreation Master Plan and the Urban Water Management Plans.

Population figures between these two plans and figures do not agree with published figures in City Budgets. For Example for the year 2005

  • The 2007-2008 Budget states Livingston’s Population at 12,411
  • The Urban Water Management Plan has the 2005 Population at 14,135

 

For the Year 2007

  • 2007-2008 Budget                                        13,287
  • 2007 Parks and Rec. Master Plan                  13,000
  • Urban Water Management Plan Projection    17,734

As you can see from the following tables, different population growth figures can vary widely based on the underlying assumptions used. It does not appear that the same “base line starting population figure” and percentage growth assumptions were used for the Parks and Recreation Master Plan and the Urban Water Management Plan.

Plans that ‘tier off’ and are subject to the General Plan (and its EIR assumptions) should agree “across the board”. A person should be able to lay them side by side and see consistent population growth figures in each one

 

Respectfully

 

Katherine Schell/Rodriguez

Enc. Exhibit 1 Population Growth Projections from The Parks and Rec Master Plan and Urban Water Management Plan

         Exibit 2 Population Figures from the 2007 – 2008 Budget and Analysis/Commentary on Population Growth Figures

 

 

Exhibit 1 Population Growth Projections from The Parks and Rec Master Plan and Urban Water Management Plan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From  Parks and Recreation Master Plan Updated Lands Use Area Calculations General Plan Update Population Projections April 2007

Recreation Master Plan Growth Rate Projection Analysis

Phase

Area of Development

 Year Completed

Population

Change in Population

Time Frame

Number of years

Percent of Increase /Decrease

Annual Growth Rate

 

Current

 

13000

 

 

 

 

 

1

Buildout of Existing City Limits

2009

19756

6756

2007-2009

2 years

51.97%

23.28%

2

Buildout of Existing Sphere of Infulence

2012

39659

19903

2009-2012

3 years

100.74%

26.15%

3

Buildout of Areas 1-8

2024

72837

33178

2012-2024

12 years

83.66%

5.20%

4

Buildout of Master Plan Study Area

2044

110906

38069

2024-2044

20 years

52.27%

2.12%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 2.4

 

Historical and Projected Population

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005 Urban Water Management Plan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

City of Livingston

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005 UWMP Projected Years (1)

 

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20065 UWMP Projected Population (2)

 

14,135

24,921

47,073

62,626

79,490

83,471

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Increase over 5-year Period

 

 

12.00%

13.60%

5.90%

4.90%

1.00%

 

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1. 2005 Urban Water Management Plan Projection years are: 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025

 

 

 

 

2. Population projections are provided by Pacific Municipal Consultants, Land Use Assumptions,

 

 

 

    Dec. 2005 and revised April 2006.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Exibit 2 Population Figures from the 2007 – 2008 Budget and Analysis/Commentary on Population Growth Figures

From City of Livingston 2007 – 2008 Budget

Year

Population

Change in Population

Percent of Increase / Decrease

1998

10,515

 

 

1999

10,505

-10

-0.10%

2000

10,696

191

1.82%

2001

10,451

-245

-2.29%

2002

10,864

413

3.95%

2003

11,125

261

2.40%

2004

11,693

568

5.11%

2005

12,411

718

6.14%

2006

12,614

203

1.64%

2007

13,287

673

5.34%

 

 

 

Analysis and Commentary on Population Projections

Parks and Recreation Master Plan

Vs

Urban Water Management Plan

 

Year

Parks and Rec. Pop. Projections 2007 Population Stated as 13.000

UWMP Population Projections 2005 population stated as 14,135

UWMP Population Projections Using 2005 Population as Per Budget

UWMP Population Projections Using 2007 Population as  Per Budget

2005

 

14,135

12,411

 

2006

 

15,833

13,902

 

2007

13,000

17,734

15,571

13,287

2010

24,923

24,922

21,882

18,672

2015

46,168

47,072

41,331

35,268

2020

59,477

62,626

54,988

46,922

2025

74,384

79,490

69,795

59,557

2030

82,629

83,471

73,290

62,539

2044

110,905

95,708

84,035

71,708

 

 

This table uses baseline population figures and growth percentages from the Parks and Recreation Master Plan. It is quite clear that small changes in assumptions create noticeable differences in results.

 

 

 

 

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